Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector

Climate Services (30), 2023

by Chihchung Choua (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre – BSC); Raül Marcos-Matamorosa (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre – BSC; Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona); Lluís Palma Garcia; Núria Pérez-Zanón; Nube González-Reviriego (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre – BSC); Marta Teixeira; Sara Silva; Natacha Fontes; Antonio Graça (Sogrape Vinhos); Alessandro Dell’Aquila; Sandro Calamanti (ENEA, SSPT-MET-CLIM) 


The potential increase in the adoption value of seasonal forecasts is spotlighted in this paper by introducing observation-forecast blending for wine-sector indicators over the Iberian Peninsula. The predictions of six bioclimatic indicators (temperature and precipitation based) considered highly important from the perspective of wine-sector users were prepared for each month of the growing season and combined with previous observations as the indicator period progresses. The performance of this approach was then assessed with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Fair Ranked Probability Skill Score (FRPSS). The results show a marked increase in the skill metrics during the growing season from the early combinations for all the indicators. This progressive improvement of the forecasting skill offers the users an opportunity to ponder anticipation and confidence in their decisions and, thus, facilitate the future uptake of seasonal forecasting in their decision planning.